Factfulness by Hans Rosling (2018)

TL;DR: Our tendencies that blind us from seeing the world as it is. Developing a Fact-based worldview allows us to see and think more clearly. 

Trying not to be over-dramatic but this book is beautiful. Awesome is not the term. Beautiful. This is the kind of book I wish had written or have been part of in writing it. Anything that teaches me how to think clearly, how to see the world and know more of it while straying from being too academic sounding is beautiful. 


Moving beyond the medium and to the content, It's probably my most eye-opening read this year. It seems common now in this genre that left to our own circuitry we default to our basic instincts. But it's unusual to hear that the world is not imploding. Bad things are still happening, but many things have been or is getting better.


This book opens with a challenge, a test, a survey on social progress among others. I take the test. I fail. 


Surprisingly, most of the people who has taken the test all over the world has failed; including Diplomats, CEO's, High-ranking leaders, clerks, social workers, students etc. As Hans Rosling puts it we should be scoring better than chimpanzees but we're not. For every question answerable by 3 choices, a random answer would get a 33% chance of getting it correct. But we're not getting it right. We're scoring lower than if chimps had taken the exam. Something's going on. Answering randomly would yield better results. It seems we are misinformed.

It is the same story of massive ignorance (by which I do not mean stupidity, or anything intentional, but simply lack of correct knowledge)
Then we have a comparison of two worldviews; and this one feels salient.

The Over-dramatic Worldview

Things are bad, and it feels like they are getting worse
The keywords are it "feels like". Are they really bad? Reality is much more closer; much more hopeful; and much more comfortable seeing it as it is.

Fact-based Worldview

Step-by-step, year-by-year, the world is improving. Not on every single measure every single year, but as a rule. Though the world faces huge challenges, we have made tremendous progress.
And so we come to define what Factfulness is. Hans Rosling, Ola Rosling and Anna Rosling Ronnlund explain this beautifully in ten parts. The First Three are Mega Misconceptions about the world. The others, in an economics or a psychology book, could be called biases or mental fallacies.

1. The Gap Instinct - "The World is divided in two"

that irresistible temptation we have to divide all kinds of things into two distinct and often conflicting groups, with an imagined gap-a huge chasm of injustice-in between.
Why is this a Mega Misconception? The model of the world being split into the developing and the developed is outdated. and it's not really useful. Grouping the world by income is much more useful seeing it in Four income levels with seven billion people. The majority is in the middle.


Hans Rosling advises that we be wary of

  1. Averages; they could tell a different story by hiding a range of numbers in a single number
  2. We tend to be drawn to the extremes. They are catchy and effective in triggering the gap instinct but they don't often help in understanding
  3. From a higher level, we see the lower levels differently and with much more difficulty like looking down from a tall building and not knowing the differences in height of the buildings near the ground
Factfulness is recognizing when a story talks about a gap.

2. The Negativity Instinct - "The World is getting worse"

we have a tendency to notice the bad more than the good
This fits with the current psychology narrative that negative moments stick out more than the positive. The story that the world is getting worse just doesn't hold up when you dig deeper. The negative flip is just much more stickier. Hence this becomes a misconception. Why?

1. Our memories are not perfect note-taking instruments
2. The reports brought about by journalists and activists are selected and filtered for maximum impact
3. We feel that it's bad to say it's getting better when bad things still exists


Hans makes a distinction that it's naive to just see the world as getting better and not acknowledge all the terrible things in it. 

People often call me an optimist, because I show them the enormous progress they didn't know about. That makes me angry. I'm not an optimist. That makes me sound naive. I'm a very serious "possibilist." That's something I made up. It means someone who neither hopes without reason, nor fears without reason. someone who constantly resists the overdramatic worldview. As a possibilist, I see all this progress is possible. This is not optimistic. It is having a clear and reasonable idea about how things are. It is having a worldview that is constructive and useful.
Hans advises:
  • Be careful jumping to any conclusions if the differences are smaller than say, roughly, 10 percent
  • The two thoughts: it's bad and it's better can coexists as a much more suitable description for the world
  • When something terrible comes on the news, calm yourself by asking "If there had been an equally large positive improvement, would I have heard about that?"
Factfulness is recognizing when we get negative news

3. The Straight Line Instinct - "The World population is just increasing and increasing"

the false idea that the world population is just increasing
Why the misconception? There are many other factors that affect population increase. But population is not a straight line. It's more like an extended "S".


Hans advises that 

Curves come in lots of different shapes. Many aspects of the world are best represented by curves shaped liked an S, or a slide, or a hump, and not by a straight line. 
Factfuless is recognizing the assumption that a line will just continue straight

4. The Fear Instinct 

When we are afraid, we do not see clearly. [...] There's no room for facts when our minds are occupied by fear
This comes close with the Negativity instinct since negative things tend to narrow attention. And with the news climate today where eyeballs are the currency; a bad blend of over-dramatic stories and the way our mind heightens them, we get a culture where the extreme gets the most attention. And yet:
Paradox: The image of a dangerous world has never been broadcast more effectively than it is now, while the world has never been less violent and more safe.
Hans advises that we distinguish what's seemingly frightening and what's dangerous
Paying too much attention to what is frightening rather than what is dangerous-that is, paying too much attention to fear-creates a tragic drainage of energy in the wrong directions. 
Factfulness is recognizing when frightening things get our attention

5. The Size Instinct

We tend to get things out of proportion. [...] It is instinctive to look at a lonely number and misjudge its importance [...] also to misjudge the importance of a single instance or an identifiable victim. 
We put too much emphasis on what's immediately in front of us, when putting our efforts on the whole produces the most improvement. 
it is the most compassionate thing to do to use your brain and work out how to do the most good with what you have.
And this happens because at some point numbers are just no longer conceivable. Or it could be that numbers so small seems unimportant, and then this starts a negative black swan event.


Hans advises that we compare and divide

  • The 80/20 Rule. Pareto's. The rule that says the majority of the effect is caused by the minority of the causes.
  • "Whenever I have to compare lots of numbers and work out which are the most important, I use the simplest-ever thinking tool. I look for the largest number."
  • For large numbers to make sense, divide it by a total and compare
  • "When you see one number falling it is sometimes actually because some other background number is falling."
Factfulness is recognizing when a lonely number seems impressive

6. The Generalization Instinct

Everyone automatically categorizes and generalizes all the time. Unconsciously
We all do it. We like to make things simple, divisible by two. But sometimes that's not helpful. Few things are a simple black or white. And with the world, it's way more complicated.


Hans advises that we find better categories and put them to the test.

  • look for differences within groups and similarities across groups
  • beware of the majority
  • beware of exceptional examples
  • assume you are not "normal" and other people are not idiots
  • beware of generalizing from one group to another
Factfulness is recognizing when a category is being used in an explanation

7. The Destiny Instinct

the idea that innate characteristics determine the destinies of people, countries, religions or cultures. 
Let the philosophers have a field day with debating whether we have free will or if everything is pre-determined. The downside with thinking things are determined is it fixes things. Destiny feels like a trap. Nothing ever seems to happen. Hans advises:
  • Recognize that slow change is not no change; Small changes add over time
  • Keep Learning: knowledge has no sell-by date.
Factfulness is recognizing that many things (including people, countries, religion and cultures) appear to be constant just because the change is happening slowly

8. The Single Perspective Instinct

this preference for single causes and single solutions
Again, we like to make things simple and we consciously prefer simple solutions for complex problems. Nothing in the world is ever so simple; and still we default to ideas that have served us before or just fits what we want to see. This skews reality when we're only projecting our favorite ideas.
Being always in favor of or always against any particular idea makes you blind to information that doesn't fit your perspective. [...] Constantly test your favorite ideas for weaknesses.
Hans advises that oftentimes, on complex questions:
  • the answer is not either/or. It is case-by-case, and it is both.
Factfulness is recognizing that a single perspective can limit your imagination

9. The Blame Instinct

the instinct to find a clear, simple reason for why something bad has happened.
I realize the last couple instinct caters to our tendency to get things fixed quick. And we assume if something is messed up, someone must have caused it. But then Why? If we stopped at the initial question of who caused it, we trigger our blame instincts.
To understand beyond most of the worlds significant problems we have to look beyond a guilty individual and to the system
The problem is that when we identify the bad guy, we are done thinking. And it's almost always more complicated than that. It's almost always about multiple interacting causes - a system. 
Hans advises:
  • If you really want to change the world, you have to understand how it actually works and forget about punching anyone in the face.
Factfulness is recognizing when a scapegoat is being used

10. The Urgency Instinct

When we are afraid and under time pressure and thinking of worst-case scenarios, we tend to make really stupid decisions. Our ability to think analytically can be overwhelmed by an urge to make quick decisions and take immediate action.
Basically, when something feels urgent, or is pushed to be urgent, we become reactive and sometimes that doesn't lead to positive outcomes.
The urgency instinct makes us want to take immediate action in the face of a perceived imminent danger.  
The middle of a Venn diagram of marketers, journalists and activists would probably have triggering the Urgency instinct in the middle overlap. It becomes a problem when a problem is overblown. Too much fluff. Too much exaggeration.
Exaggeration undermines the credibility of well-founded data. 
Data must be used to tell the truth, not to call to action, no matter how noble the intentions.
Hans writes the five Global Risks we ought look out for:
  1. Global Pandemic
  2. Financial Collapse
  3. World War III
  4. Climate Change
  5. Extreme Poverty
Factfulness is recognizing when a decision feels urgent

On educating, humility and curiosity

We should be teaching our children humility and curiosity
It is quite relaxing being humble, because it means you can stop feeling pressure to have a view about everything, and stop feeling you must be ready to defend your views all the time.
[curiosity] It means letting your mistakes trigger curiosity instead of embarrassment.

Factfulness Heuristics


1. Gap - Look for the majority
2. Negativity - Expect bad news
3. Straight Line - Lines might bend
4. Fear - Calculate the risks
5. Size - Get things in proportion
6. Generalization - Question your categories
7. Destiny - Slow change is still change
8. Single - Get a tool box
9. Blame - Resist point finger
10. Urgency - Take small steps




Hans Rosling is an inspiration. 

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